Remember Last August 19th? On that day in 2011 my RateWatch #789 carried the forecast by Jim Grauer that the 10-year yield would fall to 1.46%. Here’s what it said:
Not Sure If We Have Been Here Before
We appear to be at a time when the U.S. consumer has completely lost confidence in the economy and the ability of anyone in government to do anything about it. If you read Jim Grauer’s content in the Technicals section you will see that we may be preparing to move to a time when wealth holders choose to hold cash, U.S Treasuries and perhaps gold. If 10-year Treasury yields fall well under 2% folks may look to MBS for yield.
This is not merely about people getting into a funk. This is about the fact that fiscal policy has failed, monetary policy has failed and no politician has anything real to offer. The consumer and the investor are about to shed what hope they have left.
This could result in massive losses to equities as folks move from risk assets and park their wealth in cash, gold, Treasuries and MBS. The speed and depth of this could be frightening. If what Grauer forecasts or even if half the move he forecasts happens we will see record low home loan rates.
What was foreseen last August appears to be happening now. The massive lack of confidence in the EU and bumpy US economy is causing flight-to-quality buying of Treasury and mortgage (MBS) debt.
As such we may see record lows tick even lower, like we have the last five weeks.
Per Grauer’s comments above, we may need to have the daily tech run through a bearish correction cycle (higher yields and rates) and the next daily bull cycle could see that 1.47%.
This means that the low would be achieved 4-6 weeks from now.
These new lows will create opportunities to refinance at record low rates.
What is really going to happen depends on the perception of what will happen in the EU and that is unpredictable and very slow moving.