Rates rose then recovered after this morning’s BLS report showed the economy added 200k non-farm payrolls in December versus expectations of 150k. November was revised from 120,000 to 100,000 new jobs created and October was revised from 100,000 to 112,000. This figure doesn’t count actual people, it counts how many companies opened or closed, then uses that data to estimate the number of jobs gained or lost. Unemployment dropped to 8.5% from 8.6% according to a different part of the jobs report called the ‘Household Survey’ which counts people. CHARTS BELOW.
Rates rise when mortgage bonds (MBS) sell, and today’s trend continues a two month-theme: Mortgages sell right after better economic releases and EU aid news, then recover. The 3.5% Fannie Mae coupon—a key benchmark lenders use to price consumer rates—was down 30 basis points in early trading and is now up 23 basis points. Impending EU trouble (and MBS-focused QE3 rumors) have tempered—and reversed—selloffs to keep rates from spiking from current record-low levels.