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October 2, 2012

Store Sales Indicate Modest 3Q GDP Growth

October 2, 2012

Store Sales Indicate Modest 3Q GDP Growth

Rates are slightly better this morning as the benchmark Fannie Mae 30yr 3% mortgage bond coupon up 16 basis points to 105.92. Pretty quiet day ahead of tomorrow, when the week’s jobs data starts with payroll provider ADP releasing its September jobs report. Expectations call for 100-130k new payrolls following 201k reported last month. Then Thursday is jobless claims, and Friday is the BLS September jobs report where 120k new nonfarm payrolls are expected following last month’s 96k.

And here’s a rundown of today’s retail data…

ICSC-Goldman Store Sales (week ended 9/29/2012)
– Store Sales – Week/Week -0.3%
– Store Sales – Year/Year  2.4%

Redbook Store Sales (week ended 9/29/2012)
– Store Sales Year/Year  2.3%

Together these two are neutral and support the notion that 3Q2012 GDP will show only modest growth.  The effects of the Great Recession linger.