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September 24, 2013

Retail Weak. Home Prices up.

September 24, 2013

Retail Weak. Home Prices up.

ICSC-Goldman Store Sales (week ended 9/21/2013)

– Store Sales Week/Week  -1.0%. Previous was -1.6%

– Store Sales Year/Year +1.6%. Previous was +3.2%

Redbook (week ended 9/21/2013)

– Store Sales Year/Year  +3.6%. Previous was 3.4%.

With the fog of contradictory data it is a bit hard to see where we are headed.  These 2 reports have different ways of calculating the Year/Year data. ICSC tends to a bit more consistent.

FHFA House Price Index (July 2013)

– Month/Month +1.0%. Previous was +0.6% – Year/Year   +8.8%. Previous was +7.8%

S&P Case-Shiller HPI (July 2013)

– 20-city, Seasonally Adjusted Month/Month 0.6%. Previous was +0.9%

– 20-city, not Seasonally Adjusted Month/Month 1.8%. Previous was +2.2%

– 20-city, not Seasonally Adjusted Year/Year +12.4%. Previous was +12.1%.

The FHA Home Price Index is for homes purchase using FNMA or FHLMC loans only.  Case-Shiller includes all purchases in 20 selected cities so neither tells the whole picture. What we do know is that Home Prices are still increasing.

Consumer Confidence (September 2013)

– Consumer Confidence  79.7. Previous was 81.8.

This is the confidence level measured by The Conference Board.  It is supposed to measure predisposition to spend.  It may be worth noting that a lot of the gain in consumer spending this year has been in auto purchases.  This is something which will not last much longer.  Purchasing an auto does represent confidence that one will stay employed. Folks had deferred auto purchases because they lack confidence in their future employment status but that lack of confidence has waned.

Richmond Federal Reserve Manufacturing Index (September 2013)

– level change 0.  Previous was 14.