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May 13, 2013

Retail Sales/Business Inventories Indicate Flat GDP.

May 13, 2013

Retail Sales/Business Inventories Indicate Flat GDP.

Retail Sales (April 2013)

– Retail Sales Month/Month change +0.1%. Previous was -0.4%

– Retail Sales less autos  Month/Month change -0.1%. Previous was -0.4%

– Less Autos & Gas  Month/Month change +0.6%. Previous was -0.1%.

Retail Sales are consumer spending and constitute the largest component of GDP.  This data shows flat consumer spending and the sensitivity of discretionary spending to gasoline prices.

Business Inventories (March 2013)

– Inventories Month/Month change +0.0.  Previous was +0.1%.

This is the “I” in GDP =C+I+G+(X-M).  Together with Retail Sales which is the “C” in GDP, today is a picture of flat GDP.