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May 1, 2013

Rates near records as ADP Jobs and ISM Manufacturing disappoint (CHARTS)

May 1, 2013

Rates near records as ADP Jobs and ISM Manufacturing disappoint (CHARTS)

Below is a summary of today’s jobs and manufacturing data. Generally weaker. Rates holding near record lows ahead of Fed meeting.

ADP Private Jobs (April 2013)

– ADP Employment +119,000.  Previous revised from 158,000 to 131,000.

– With the revision to March private jobs were really +92,000.  This is weak and a bad omen for Friday’s BLS Employment Situation Report which was weak last month. With the revision to March private jobs are really +92,000.   From the reaction of the markets (equity and Treasury) this would indicate that participants expected an improvement in jobs and got the opposite.

Full Report with more charts/tables (beyond the ones below)

ADP1

ADP2

ADP3

ADP4

MBA Mortgage Applications (week ended 4/26/2013)

– Purchase Index Week/Week  -1.4%. Previous was +0.3%.

-Refinance Index  Week/Week  +3.0%. Previous was +0.3%.

-Composite Index  Week/Week  +1.8%.  Previous was +0.2%.

– The Refinance Index rises when rates drop. The Purchase Index is a better macroeconomic indicator and could indicate a slowing in home buying.  I would not read too much into any one week.

ISM Manufacturing Index  (April 2013)

– Index Level 50.7.  Previous was 51.3.

– This shows slow growth at best. 50 is dividing line between expansion and contraction. 

– This is a survey index, below are some responses and a full data summary

– And here’s the full report

ISM1

ISM2