November 27, 2012

Rates Down Despite Wealth of Positive Data

November 27, 2012

Rates Down Despite Wealth of Positive Data

Rates typically rise when improving economic data prompts investors into a “risk-on” mode which drives stock prices up and bond prices down. But rates are holding near record lows this morning on a decent bond rally despite a full slate of improving economic data summarized below. The main reason seems to be concern over a U.S. debt deal.

S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index (September 2012)
– 20-city, Seasonally Adjusted – Month/Month +0.4%. Previous was +0.5%.
– 20-city, Not Seasonally Adjusted – Month/Month  +0.3%. Previous was +0.9%.
– 20-city, Not Seasonally Adjusted  – Year/Year +3.0%. Previous was +2.0.
– Full September report from Case Shiller
– Good summary/charts from CalculatedRisk

FHFA House Price Index (September 2012)
– Month change 0.2%. Previous was +0.5% 
– Year/Year change 4.3%. Previous was  +4.5%.

These slow and steady increases are fine.  As pointed our previously here, what we are seeing is price increases driven by limited supply consequent to many folks still being underwater.

Chain Store Sales (week ended 11/24/2012)
– ICSC-Goldman Store Sales, Week/Week +3.3%. Previous was -0.3%
– ICSC-Goldman Store Sales, Year/Year 4.0%

– Redbook Store Sales, Year/Year 4.5%. Previous was +1.8%

– All those shoppers who nearly killed each other to get into stores last Friday pumped up the data for last week.

Consumer Confidence (November 2012)
– Consumer Confidence Level was 73.7 up from a revised 73.1 the previous month.

– Uncertainties created by the election dissipated and consumers and spending a bit more freely.

Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index (November 2012)
– Level Change +9.  Previous was -7. 

– It is good to see a healthy manufacturing report from a Fed district. Lately, these have been weak.

Durable Goods Orders (October 2012)
– New Orders – Month/Month  +0.0%. Previous was +9.9%
– New Orders – Year/Year  2.3%. Previous was +2.5%
– Ex-transportation – Month/Month 1.5%. Previous was +2.0%
– Ex-transportation – Year/Year -2.3%. Previous was -1.6%.