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September 4, 2013

Purchase Applications down.

September 4, 2013

Purchase Applications down.

MBA Mortgage Applications (Week ended 8/30/2013)

– Purchase Index Week/Week -0.4%. Previous weeks were +2.0%, +1.0%, -5.0%, +1.0%, -3.0%, -2.0%, +1.0%, 3.0%, and -3.0%.

– Refinance Index Week/Week +2.0% . Previous weeks were -5.0%, -8.0%, -4.0%, +0.0%, -4.0%, +1.0%, -4.0%, and -4.0%.

– Composite Index Week/Week +2.0%.  Previous weeks were -2.5%., -4.6%, -4.7%, +0.2%, -3.7%, -1.2%, -2.6%, -4.0%, and -11.7%.

The Refinance index is up because rates dipped slightly and briefly.  The important index is purchase applications which remain soft. Purchase applications are a leading indicator of Home Sales.

 

ICSC-Goldman Store Sales (week ended 8/31/2013)

– Store Sales Week/Week -0.6%. Previous was +0.2% – Store Sales Year/Year +1.8%. Previous was  1.9%

Redbook (week ended 8/31/2013)

– Store Sales Year/Year 4.7%. Previous was +3.8%.

Once again the two chain store sales indices send conflicting messages.  The Consumer Metrics Daily Absolute Demand Index fell from August 24-31 and appears to have bottomed out.  Retail looks flat.

International Trade (July 2013)

– Trade Deficit $39.1 billion.  Previous revised to $34.5 billion.  This increase in deficit is largely in non-petroleum imports.