Mortgage Applications (week ended 7/5/2013)

– Purchase Index Week/Week -3.0%. Previous weeks were -3.0%, +2.0%, -3.0%, +5.0%, -2.0%, 3.0%

– Refinance Index Week/Week -4.0%. Previous weeks were -16.0%, -5.0%, -3.0%, +5.0%, -15%, -12.0%

– Composite Index Week/Week -4.0%. Previous weeks were -11.7%, -3.0%, 3.3%, +5.0%, -11.5%, -8.8%, -9.8%.

The “higher interest rates won’t affect purchases” story is looking a bit shaky.  Refinancing is almost entirely rate dependent and suffered last week.

Purchase Mortgage Applications are a leading indicator of Home Sales, Home Sales  drive homebuilding and Housing Starts are still about 35% below the level needed to accommodate population growth and scrappage.  Higher rates are not helping particularly after an increase in prices.

Wholesale Trade (May 2013)

– Inventories Month/Month change -0.5%.  Previous month was revised from +0.2% to -0.1%.

Inventories could be down because Retail Sales were higher than expected.  They could also be down because retailers expect slower sales.