Mortgage Applications down.
Mortgage Applications (week ended 7/5/2013)
– Purchase Index Week/Week -3.0%. Previous weeks were -3.0%, +2.0%, -3.0%, +5.0%, -2.0%, 3.0%
– Refinance Index Week/Week -4.0%. Previous weeks were -16.0%, -5.0%, -3.0%, +5.0%, -15%, -12.0%
– Composite Index Week/Week -4.0%. Previous weeks were -11.7%, -3.0%, 3.3%, +5.0%, -11.5%, -8.8%, -9.8%.
The “higher interest rates won’t affect purchases” story is looking a bit shaky. Refinancing is almost entirely rate dependent and suffered last week.
Purchase Mortgage Applications are a leading indicator of Home Sales, Home Sales drive homebuilding and Housing Starts are still about 35% below the level needed to accommodate population growth and scrappage. Higher rates are not helping particularly after an increase in prices.
Wholesale Trade (May 2013)
– Inventories Month/Month change -0.5%. Previous month was revised from +0.2% to -0.1%.
Inventories could be down because Retail Sales were higher than expected. They could also be down because retailers expect slower sales.