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February 14, 2012

Mixed Retail Signals. Rates Hold Despite MBS Rally.

February 14, 2012

Mixed Retail Signals. Rates Hold Despite MBS Rally.

Mortgage bonds rallying after today’s weaker than expected retail sales data, but with rates already so low, lenders really aren’t repricing for the better unless this rally gains steam in the coming days.

The overall retail picture is muddled. Retail Sales were up but from a depressed level the previous month and gasoline prices are increasing which will eliminate some discretionary spending. Roundup below.

Retail Sales (January 2012)
-Retail Sales, Month/Month +0.4 %. Prior +0.1%.
-Retail Sales ex-autos, Month/Month +0.7 %. Prior -0.2%. Highest since March
Full report
-More on auto sales

ISCS-Goldman Chain Store Sales (week ending 2/11)
-Store Sales, Week/Week -2.0%
-Store Sales, Year/Year +2.8%

Redbook Chain Store Sales (week ending 2/11)
-Store Sales Year/Year change 2.7%.

Business Inventories (December 2011)
-Business Inventories were +0.4% in December.

Import/Export Prices (December 2011)
-Export Prices, Month/Month +0.2%
-Export Prices, Year/Year +2.5%
-Import Prices, Month/Month +0.3%
-Import Prices, Year/Year +7.1%
-Not well hidden in the above is the increase in the price of oil and the resulting increase in gas prices. This reduces discretionary spending and hurts GDP.