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September 25, 2013

Manufacturing (except for autos) weak. Housing Regional.

September 25, 2013

Manufacturing (except for autos) weak. Housing Regional.

MBA Mortgage Applications (Week ended 9/20/2013)

– Purchase Index Week/Week +7.0%. Previous weeks were +3.0%, -3.0%, -0.4%, +2.0%, +1.0%, -5.0%, +1.0%, -3.0%, -2.0%, and +1.0%.

– Refinance Index Week/Week +5.0%. Previous weeks were +18%, -20%, +2.0%, -5.0%, -8.0%, -4.0%, +0.0%, -4.0%, and +1.0%.

– Composite Index Week/Week +5.5%.  Previous weeks were +11.2%. -13.5%, +2.0%, -2.5%., -4.6%, -4.7%, +0.2%, -3.7%, -1.2%, and -2.6%.

The last two weeks have shown healthy improvement.  The refi index is extremely rate sensitive.  The Purchase Index is an indicator of the health of housing.

New Home Sales (August 2013)

– New Home Sales (seasonally adjusted, annualized) 421,000. Previous revised down to 390,000.  This data is relative to July which showed a 13.4% decrease from June even before it was revised down slightly.  Average new home prices fell for the 4th consecutive month.  This does not show broad-based weakness in prices but has more to do with where the new homes are being built. Sales show strong gains in the Midwest and South. Sales in the West fell sharply.

Durable Goods Orders (August 2013)

– New Orders Month/Month +0.1%. Previous revised from -7.3% to -8.0%

– New Orders Year/Year  +13.7%. Previous revised from -0.3% to -1.1%

– Ex-transportation Month/Month -0.1%. Previous revised from  -0.6% to -0.5%

– Ex-transportation Year/Year +7.6%. Previous revised from +5.9% to +6.0%.

Because of the revisions to July this data makes it difficult to draw conclusions. The only area of growth in manufacturing continues to be autos.