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October 30, 2013

Inflation Tame. Private Jobs Weak.

October 30, 2013

Inflation Tame. Private Jobs Weak.

MBA Mortgage Applications (Week ended 10/25/2013)

– Purchase Index Week/Week +2.0%. Previous weeks were +1.0%, -5.0%, -1.0%, -6.0%, +7.0%, +3.0%, -3.0%, -0.4%, +2.0%, +1.0%, -5.0%, and +1.0%.

– Refinance Index Week/Week +9.0%. Previous weeks were -1.0%, +3.0%, +3.0%, +3.0%, +5.0%, +18%, -20%, +2.0%, -5.0%, -8.0%, and -4.0%.

– Composite Index Week/Week +6.4%.  Previous weeks were -0.6%, +0.3%, +1.3%, 0.4%, +5.5%, +11.2%. -13.5%, +2.0%, -2.5%., -4.6%, -4.7%, and +0.2%.

The refinance index is rate driven.  The 2% increase in purchase applications is a plus for housing.

ADP Employment Report (October 2013)

– Private Jobs +130,000.  Previous was revised down from +166,000 to +145,000.  Taking away the 21,000 fewer jobs the net gain in private jobs was +109,000 which is less than what is needed to keep constant the labor participation rate.

Since the 1st of the month is Friday the BLS Employment Situation Report will not be released until November 8.

Consumer Price Index (September 2013)

– CPI month/month +0.2%. Previous was +0.1%

– CPI year/year  +1.2%. Previous was +1.5%.

– CPI core (less food & energy) month/month  0.1%. Previous was +0.1%

– CPI less (less food & energy) year/year +1.7 %. Previous was +1.8%.

Inflation is still tame giving the Fed license to do whatever it wants regarding money supply.

FOMC announcement is at 11:00 AM PDT.  This will have effects mainly on equity prices which have been pumped up by increased money supply.  Sadly, jobs and GDP have benefited little from Fed policy.