January 31, 2012

Growth Subdued: Home Prices, Retail Sales

January 31, 2012

Growth Subdued: Home Prices, Retail Sales

Case Shiller Home Price Index
-20-city, Seasonally Adjusted, Month/Month -0.7%
-20-city, Not Seasonally Adjusted, Month/Month -1.3%
-20-city, Not Seasonally Adjusted – Year/Year -3.7%
-Home prices in the cities surveyed are still falling. 17 of the 20 cities showed lower prices.

Retail Sales
-ICSC-Goldman Chain Store Sales, Week/Week +0.1%. Previous was -1.4%
-ICSC-Goldman Chain Store Sales, Year/Year 3.9%. Previous was 2.8%.

-Redbook Store Sales, Year/Year change +2.0%. Previous was +2.5%

-This is a measure or retail sales at chain stores, discounters and department stores.
-These two reports are further indications that consumer spending remains restrained.

Consumer Confidence (January 2012)
Consumer Confidence 61.1 – Previous was 64.5 The weakness was felt most in the jobs market where 43.5% say jobs are hard to get. Again – this is a survey of people’s opinions. Confidence always gets slapped down when gas prices rise.

This data comes from a survey of consumers by the Conference Board. It is supposed to measure predisposition to spend.

Employment Cost Index
-ECI Quarter/Quarter change +0.4%
ECI Year/Year change +2.0%

Chicago PMI
Business Barometer Index – 60.2. Previous was 62.5.

This still shows expansion. We continue to have manufacturing show health while retail wanes. The disconnect between wholesale and retail will be fixed either by retail picking up or wholesale slowing to allow inventory to be sold. This was the same picture we saw in last week’s GDP where the wholesale component of GDP was +2.35% Q/Q while the retail (consumer goods) portion was +1.34%. In the GDP report Consumer Services were even worse at +0.1%.