December 20, 2012

Government Spending Pads GDP. Existing Home Sales up.

December 20, 2012

Government Spending Pads GDP. Existing Home Sales up.

GDP (3rdQ2012)

– Real GDP – Quarter/Quarter  +3.1%
– GDP price index – Quarter/Quarter  +2.7%
– Final sales of domestic goods was +2.4%

The previous iteration of 3rdQ2012 GDP was estimated at +2.7%.  2ndQ2012 had been +1.7%.  The final sales of domestic goods is the best measure of economic health becaue it is all about the consumer.  The overall number includes wholesale spending (inventory growth) and government spending. 

Real federal government consumption expenditures and gross investment increased 9.5% in the third quarter, in contrast to a decrease of 0.2% in the second. The change in real private inventories added 0.73% to the third-quarter change in real GDP.

This iteration while headlining stronger is actually weak.  That sharp increases in government spending will hurt GDP in the current and next quarters. We cannot carry the kinds of deficits we are undertaking without sustained 4% GDP growth.  One might suspect that the increase in government spending was in anticipation of the reduced spending mandate by the fiscal cliff ogre.

Jobless Claims (week ended 12/15/2012)

– New Claims – 361,000. Previous was revised to 344,000
– 4-week Moving Average – 367,750

Existing Home Sales (November 2012)

– Existing Home Sales – 5,040,000 (seasonally adjusted annualized rate.) Previous was revised to 4,760,000.

FHFA House Price Index (October 2012)

– Month/Month +0.5%
– Year/Year +5.6%

Philadelphia Fed Survey  (October 2012)

– General Business Conditions Index +8.1.  Previous was -10.7.