1stQ2013 GDP 1st revision
– Real GDP Quarter/Quarter 2.4%. Initial was +2.5%
– GDP price index Quarter/Quarter (Seasonally Adjusted Annualized) +1.1%. Previous was +1.2%.
– Final Sales of Domestic Products +1.9%. Previous was +1.5%.
GDP growth is still too low. The goal should be 3.5%-4.0% growth. Of concern should be the debt/GDP ratio which continues to increase.
Real per capita disposable income was revised lower yet again. In fact, real per capita disposable income contracted during the quarter at an astonishing -9.03% annualized rate, taking it to a level below where it was two years ago. And the personal savings rate was adjusted down once more — this time to 2.3%.
Initial Jobless Claims (week ended 5/25/2013)
– New Claims (seasonally adjusted) 354,000. Previous was 340,000
– 4-week Moving Average 347,250. Previous was 340,250
– New Claims (unadjusted) were 317,732, an increase of 13,653 from the previous week.
I do not see any significance to the slight increase in initial claims. 350,000 Initial Claims is a level indicating, more or less, a jobs market getting neither better or worse.
Pending Home Sales (April 2013)
– Pending Home Sales Index 106.0. Previous was 105.7. This data comes from NAR and should be a leading indicator of existing home sales. A Pending Home Sale exists when there is a ratified contract but the sales has not yet closed.
One topic worth think about is that there have been two different sources of sales – distressed (foreclosures and short sales) and non-distressed. As the supply of distressed sales has decreased we have seen an increase in median price as the poorer quality homes – likely to sell at lower prices – have diminished in number and, as that supply decreases, we are also seeing a flattening in sales.