October 25, 2012

Fundamentals Good by Comparison but Flat

October 25, 2012

Fundamentals Good by Comparison but Flat

Initial Jobless Claims (week ended 10/20/2012)

– Initial Claims 369,000
– Prior revised to 392,000
– 4-week Moving Average 368,000, up from 366,500

While the swings in the data may be generated by incorrect seasonal adjustment factors, attention should be directed to the 4-week Moving Average. 

Durable Goods Orders (September 2012)

New Orders – Month/Month +9.9%. Previous was -13.2%
New Orders – Year/Year +2.5%. Previous was  -6.7%
Ex-transportation – Month/Month +2.0%. Previous was -2.1%
Ex-transportation – Year/Year  -1.6 %. Previous was -1.7%

DGO look fine by comparison with last month’s data which was awful.  DGO are by their nature “bouncy.”

Pending Home Sales Index (September 2012)

Pending Home Sales Index – Level 99.5. Previous was 99.2. 
Pending Home Sales Index – Month/Month +0.3%. Previous was -2.6%

This is a leading indicator of existing home sales published by NAR.  This data is flat.

Chicago Fed National Activity Index (September 2012)

– Level is dead flat.  Previous was -.87. 3-month Average is -.37

GDP Preview
The first of three 3Q GDP readings is tomorrow.  I rarely forecast but GDP is something I have been tracking for the past year. With the last quarter having been revised down and BEA using suspicious adjustments for inflation I would not be surprised to see an unexpectedly high number around +3.8%. Here’s a few more thoughts.