We are starting the week with “VOLATILITY” written in large letters so any deviation of fundamentals from expectation could have an outsized result.
Chicago Fed National Activity Index (July)
-Three-Month Moving Average -0.29
New Home Sales are Tuesday, Durable Goods Orders are Wednesday, and Friday has 2nd look 2ndQ2011GDP, Consumer Sentiment, Corporate Profits and a speech by Bernanke in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. GDP consensus is 0.7% to 1.6%. If that comes in lower, that coupled with the bullish Treasury techs could set off a rally in Treasuries driving yields to record lows. The nagging concern is that a sovereign debt crisis in Europe could set off a banking crisis there.