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October 6, 2011

Fundamentals 10/6: Jobless Claims OK But…

October 6, 2011

Fundamentals 10/6: Jobless Claims OK But…

Initial Jobless Claims
-401,000 for the week ending October 1
-Up 6,000 from previous week’s revised 395,000 (was 391k)
-4-week moving average was 414,000, down 4,000 from previous week
-Second week near key 400k or lower threshold
Jobless Claims
I always find amusement in the way the media reports economic data. Bloomberg headlines the jobs data with “U.S. Initial Jobless Claims Rise Less Than Expected.” What we will see at the end of this year is the unemployment rate falling as people who collected 99 weeks of unemployment leave the work force. The fact is this: we should be measuring economic health by what percent of the adult population is working. The fact that the long unemployed leave the work force may make the unemployment rates lower but this will be a false positive.

The Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index
-This is a “Hey, sir, how are you feeling about the economy” survey
-Survey level last week was -50.2
-Up from the previous -53.0 which was the second lowest on record
-Survey range is from +100 to -100
Full Bloomberg Report