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October 14, 2011

Fundamentals 10/14: Retail Sales & Lots More

October 14, 2011

Fundamentals 10/14: Retail Sales & Lots More

Retail Sales
– September Retail Sales were +1.1%.
– Previous was +0.0 while consensus was +0.8%
– ex-autos was +0.8%
-It is interesting that the leading indicator from the Comsumer Metrics saw the increase in year-over-year spending peak in mid-August and subsequently give back. If Comsumer Metrics is correct, we will give back some of this gain in Retail Sales and see increases but smaller ones. The Retail Sales data in of great importance. This is what drives the economy. Not the Fed, not the President and Congress. This is the neither illusions of the 99% or the 1%. This is the 100%.

Business Inventories
Inventories for August were +0.4%. Business remains unclear as to the intentions of the consumer.
Business Inventories

Import/Export Prices
-Export Prices, Month/Month: +0.4%
-Export Prices, Year/Year: +9.5%
-Import Prices, Month/Month: +0.3%
-Import Prices, Year/Year: +13.4%
-The volatility of commodty prices has very significant social and political impact. Increased food proces may have bee contributory to all that happened in MENA this year. When the cost of food is 40% of your income, a 30% increase in the price of food is a good bit more than academic. In the U.S. the population goes bonkers when the price of gasoline goes up. This is evidenced by…

Consumer Sentiment
-Sentiment Index – 57.5
-Previous was 59.4
-Consensus was 60.0
-The consumer expresses a “bad attitude” yet Retail Sales are +1.1%