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September 14, 2012

Core Inflation Contained. Gas Price Inflated Retail Weak. Manufacturing Weak.

September 14, 2012

Core Inflation Contained. Gas Price Inflated Retail Weak. Manufacturing Weak.

CPI (Retail Level Inflation) August 2012

CPI core (less food & energy) Month/Month  0.1%
CPI less food & energy  Year/Year  1.7%
CPI – Month/Month  0.6%
CPI – Year/Year +1.7%

Core CPI is contained.  Overall reflects higher gasoline and food prices and those increases are weather related and will correct.

Retail Sales (August 2012)

Retail Sales – Month/Month  0.9%
Retail Sales less autos – Month/Month 0.8%
Less Autos & Gas – Month/Month 0.1%

Retail Sales data is neither seasonally adjusted not inflation adjusted.  These are nominal dollars.  While a +0.9% Month/Month increase looks good it is made up almost entirely of higher gasoline prices.  Higher gas prices hurt GDP.

Industrial Production (August 2012)

Production – Month/Month -1.2%
Capacity Utilization Rate –  78.2%
Manufacturing – Month/Month -0.7%

This is weak data and indicative of something other than growth.  One might speculate that this could represent the leading edge of worldwide recession.