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November 29, 2011

Consumer Confidence Spike, Home Prices Down

November 29, 2011

Consumer Confidence Spike, Home Prices Down

Consumer Confidence
-November index level 56.0
-Up from 40.9 in October
-4mo high and biggest monthly gain since April 2003
-This survey measurement by the Conference Board is supposed to measure consumers’ predisposition to spend. This reading is very strong and was backed by strong post-Thanksgiving retail sales. This should remind everyone that all that is done in Washington means little. The consumer drives the economy and only the consumer can drive us from the prolonged slump. This strong reading for Consumer Confidence is helping equities and hurting Treasuries.

Home Prices
FHFA House Price Index (September)
-Month/Month +0.9%
-Year/Year -2.2%
-Only counts homes with Fannie/Freddie mortgages
Full report

Case-Shiller
-20-city, Seasonally Adjusted, Month/Month -0.6%
-20-city, Not Seasonally Adjusted, Month/Month -0.6%
-20-city, Not Seasonally Adjusted, Year/Year -3.6%
-Existing home prices nationwide
Full report

The divergence of these two metrics likely indicates weakness at the high end of prices which Fannie and Freddie do not service.

Retail (Chain Store Sales)
-ICCS-Goldman Store Sales, Week/Week +1.7%
-Store Sales, Year/Year +4%
-Redbook Store Sales, Year/Year +5.4%

Consumer Metrics
The leading indicator of on-line discretionary spending is showing recovery from the late October downturn